Yara International reported stronger-than-expected Q1 earnings as the Iran war keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to commercial traffic. The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market prices the April 30 contract at 0% YES.
Market reaction
Commercial crossings through the Strait have dropped to near zero, pushing up freight costs and commodity prices. Yara benefited directly from halted fertilizer transit. The April 30 contract has shown no movement in the past 24 hours, stuck at 0% YES with no recent trading volume.
Why it matters
The blockade has restructured shipping economics in the region. The IRGC maintains a strict toll regime, and Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd both have booking embargoes in place. With the contract at 0%, traders see no path to normalization before the end of April. The absence of any volume confirms that sentiment is uniformly bearish on a resolution.
What to watch
Without a diplomatic breakthrough or military de-escalation, the market will stay frozen. Specific triggers that could move the contract: any IRGC announcement changing the toll regime, or statements from the US or Iranian governments signaling a policy shift. Neither appears imminent. At 0% YES, betting against normalization by April 30 carries no cost, but any unexpected diplomatic movement would be the only thing to disrupt the current pricing.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 73.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| September 30 | 91.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 93.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.3% | — | — | Trade → |
