Friday’s selloff pushed XRP deeper into the red, completing a 22% retrace over the past 30 days and sending the token below $1.10 for the first time since November 2024.
For many, this move immediately raises the most important question in the current climate: could the altcoin reach the $1 mark again soon, or is a fall below this level now on the cards?
Could XRP Drop 40% Toward $0.70?
In a new report, market expert Sam Daodu flags that the broader technical picture is now fully bearish across multiple timeframes. He notes that XRP is trading below its 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages (MAs), a configuration that typically signals sellers remain in control no matter what chart window investors look at.
The expert said there is not much support once XRP trades at $1.09. Around $1.05, buyers have tended to show interest, and then $1 is the next major psychological floor where demand often appears simply because it is a round number.
Even more concerning, some chart analysts he references in the report believe the cryptocurrency could drop as much as another 40% from current levels if the risk-off trend continues, which would place the token around $0.70. Yet on-chain data tells a different story.
Monthly RSI Hits Rare Oversold Reset
The number of XRP wallets holding at least 10,000 tokens hit a record 332,230 in May, and that group has continued to grow through each drawdown of 2026. Meanwhile, wallets holding 1 million or more XRP added a net 42 new addresses since January—its first increase in millionaire wallets since September 2025.
Whale behavior also appears to be tightening around supply. Whales holding 10 million or more XRP control 45.83 billion tokens, representing 68.5% of the circulating supply, the highest concentration since May 2018.
In addition, whale outflow dominance on Binance recently reached 91.4%, the highest reading since 2024. Daodu notes that when Binance outflow dominance last hit similar levels—October 2024—XRP later rallied from about $0.50 to above $3 in the months that followed.
There is also a longer-cycle technical signal that Daodu says does not show up often. XRP’s monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen into the oversold reset zone for only the fourth time in 13 years.
Each of the earlier RSI resets eventually preceded a major reversal in XRP’s direction, and Daodu says the fourth occurrence is now forming with XRP sitting around $1.09.
While whales and long-cycle chart signals may support the idea of a future rebound, the near-term catalyst for many is policy. Daodu points to the CLARITY Act floor vote as a potential turning point for XRP’s outlook for the rest of the year.
The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 and was placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar on June 1. That puts it at the fifth stage out of nine needed before it can become law, with the full Senate floor vote identified as the next major step.
If the CLARITY Act clears and the macro environment stabilizes, Standard Chartered forecasts XRP could reach $2.80, with a bullish range stretching as high as $8.
But if the bill stalls before recess and slips into a later timeline, such as 2030 or beyond, the bank’s outlook suggests prices could retreat toward $0.53.
On whether the altcoin will drop below $1, Daodu’s view is more conditional than definitive. He suggests the altcoin could likely test $1 before this leg of the sell-off ends, and whether the level breaks depends on two key factors.
The first is whether Bitcoin (BTC) can reclaim and consolidate above $60,000. Daodu says if BTC slides into the $55,000 zone, XRP would likely follow regardless of its own fundamentals.
The second factor is whether the CLARITY Act receives a Senate floor vote before the August recess. If that vote happens and the bill clears, the upside could become attractive enough for institutional money to re-engage—potentially prompting a rally from whatever low XRP marks during the downturn.
Featured image created with OpenArt; chart from TradingView.com
