XMR price mirrors past bear cycles – What if Monero loses $340 support?

Monero [XMR] followed Bitcoin’s [BTC] dump and shed 6% of its value on the 2nd of June. As of writing, the privacy coin traded at $344 and was at an inflection point that could determine a short-term relief or a broader drawdown.  Notably, after XMR bulls failed to decisively reclaim $400, the market structure flipped to bearish. But there they still have one last line of defense: the 2-year trendline support that stopped the H2 2025 drawdown and the February 2026.  If defended, the support could become another springboard to $4380-$4400, or about 15% potential upside. Crack it, and the altcoin could trigger a 2022-style bear drawdown. So, which way for XMR traders? Let's explore the charts for clues.  Are bears waiting for this signal? On the higher time frame (HTF) charts, especially the monthly chart, the current price action mirrored the 2017 and 2022 style bear market drawdown.  In the two cycles, XMR declined by about 80% and 61% after cracking the multi-month trendlines. Another telltale sign during the two occasions was a MACD death cross (white circles).  As of press time, the chart was about to flag a MACD death cross. If this is followed by a definitive drop below the trendline support (yellow dotted line), XMR could fall to $217 (50 weekly SMA, white) or a 37% likely plunge from the current levels.  Privacy segment takes a hit The privacy narrative is one of the potential catalysts that could help bulls defend the key trendline. Although Zcash [ZEC], another privacy coin, fell with XMR and BTC, it had reversed the losses as of writing.  However, if the narrative wanes and BTC extends its pullback, then XMR’s trendline support will likely be under pressure.  For long-term privacy bulls seeking a re-entry into XMR, the current level could be deemed a great buying zone. However, if past patterns repeat, there could be an even better discounted level if the trendline support is broken. For short-sellers, a decisive crack below the support ($340) would signal more profit-making opportunities as XMR’s pullback could extend to $217 or below.  Final Summary Monero’s XMR slipped by 6% and fell to a key inflection point that could trigger a rebound or further drawdown.  A sustained stay below $340 if BTC bearishness extends could drag XMR’s price lower.