Who will win Eurovision 2026? (post rehearsal clips analysis)
Polymarket Whale3 min read·Just now--
I have over $20,000 in Eurovision positions currently and here’s my current predictions on who can actually win.
Greece: Some will get mad but after the latest rehearsal clip I think Greece ISN’T winning. And that comes from someone who is Greek has made over $1k already on Greece because I traded Greece at 6% to win and sold at 15% avg all my positions.
Some people claim that a 30sec clip isn’t enough to judge the whole song, but sadly these 30secs give you the vibe of how the whole staging of the song will go, except the part where he talks to his mother. And unfortunately it’s underwhelming and not winner material. Also, you must be dumb to compare Ferto with Espresso Machiato and think it will do that well in televoting. Ferto is a hard first listen for many people and not that catchy.
Denmark: The most Eurovision coded song. Great vocals, good staging and won Eurojury which is nice. I have some shares in Denmark to win at 13% because I expect the odds to go up, minimum 16% at some point. However, it doesn’t give strong winner vibes so I don’t think it will actually win but it’s much more likely than Greece.
Australia: Not much to say here. Most people don’t know and don’t care who Delta is. Boring staging, nothing special to give winner vibes. I am sure the young jurors that were added this year will love it (jking ofc). I don’t think it will even be the Jury winner.
Israel: Not winning this year.
Romania: Too sexualized to win even though I really like the song.
France: Waiting for the rehearsal video to come out. We know Monroe can deliver and with some impressive staging she is a winning contender. I feel like 6.8% for France is extremely low, considering we don’t know the staging yet, and hopefully after rehearsals it will jump to 10%+ range.
Finland: Thats my winner and the safest best for Eurovision 2026. I max bet Finland to win at 8.0 decimal odds in multiple sportsbooks 2 months ago and it’s now at 2.2. I really love the staging, the vocals aren’t that great but I think they will be fine in the final.
Linda being able to play live in the final is a huge boost for Finland and shows that EBU wants Finland to win. It’s a song that can do well both with Juries and Televote. It’s first in every poll that exists with a big difference and came 2nd in Eurojury which is rly good.
Also, Finland delegation is openly against Israel participating and recently Israeli delegation said that they don’t want Finland to win. That’s really good for Finland because the casuals that are against Israel will vote for Finland and juries, which is the main way to stop Israel from winning, they will give an extra boost to them.
I have a feeling that Finland will win both juries and televoting. Televoting is a coinflip because of Israel so I am more comfortable on them winning the Jury. Overall, Finland is sending a complete winner vibes package, that can only go wrong imo if it has really bad vocals in the final.
Right now I can see Finland/Denmark/France winning. (My opinion on France will probably change when I see the rehearsal clip).
You can check the latest odds for the Eurovision winner here: https://polymarket.com/event/eurovision-winner-2026
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