White House weighs CFTC bid to set federal rules for booming prediction markets

In recent weeks, several states have intensified efforts to classify event-contract platforms as unlicensed gambling operations.

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Add us on Google By Editorial Team · Edited by Vivian May. 27, 2026

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is seeking to formalize oversight of prediction markets through a proposal establishing guidelines for event contracts.

The measure is under review by the White House through the Office of Management and Budget and would eventually be opened to public comment, although details have not been released. Bloomberg first reported the development.

The proposal is expected to build on feedback from a spring consultation that drew more than 3,000 responses covering insider trading, contract prohibitions, and the larger architecture of prediction market oversight.

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The rulemaking, if finalized, would mark the first comprehensive federal framework for event contracts and could reshape how platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket operate in the US.

A growing number of states are challenging prediction-market platforms, arguing that contracts tied to sports, elections, and other events function more like gambling than federally regulated financial derivatives.

Nevada, New Jersey, Maryland, Ohio, Montana, Illinois, and other states have pursued enforcement actions as courts split over whether federal CFTC jurisdiction preempts state gaming laws.

Operators such as Kalshi maintain their event contracts are legal under the Commodity Exchange Act, while state regulators contend the platforms should comply with state gambling, tax, and consumer-protection rules.

President Donald Trump said Tuesday that prediction markets should remain under the sole jurisdiction of the CFTC and vowed to support both the industry and the crypto sector.

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