The White House said it expects Kevin Warsh to be swiftly confirmed as Federal Reserve Chairman. Warsh’s confirmation by May 15 is at 84% YES, up from 29% just a day ago.
Market reaction
The May 15 contract surged 55 percentage points after the White House statement. The 98% YES odds for June 30 show traders expect Warsh to be confirmed well before that deadline. The May 1 contract sits at 2% YES, reflecting skepticism about an ultra-fast confirmation.
Why it matters
The volume tells the story. The May 15 market saw $16,778 in USDC trading in the last 24 hours, with $1,747 needed to move the price five points. The May 1 market’s shallow liquidity means just $178 would shift the odds five points, making it vulnerable to even modest trades.
What to watch
The White House statement removes much of the uncertainty around confirmation. A YES share on the May 15 contract at 84¢ offers a 1.19x return. For contrarian traders, the May 1 contract offers a potential 50x return if Warsh is confirmed in the next seven days.
Watch for Senate Banking Committee announcements or endorsements from moderate Democrats. Either could push the May 15 odds higher or give an unexpected jolt to the May 1 contract if rapid progress is signaled.
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Kevin Warsh Confirmed As Fed Chair May 15| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | 2.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 15 | 84% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 98% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 11% | — | — | Trade → |
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