Member-only story
When Stress Signals Profit: A Systematic Study of Halliburton
From a simple backtest to walk-forward validation — how one energy stock rewarded disciplined rule-following across 5 decades
Kryptera7 min read·1 hour ago--
The Setup: 1 Stock, 2 Ideas
Halliburton (HAL) is not a glamorous stock to trade. It is an oilfield services company — cyclical, volatile, and deeply sensitive to energy prices. But that volatility is exactly what makes it interesting from a systematic perspective. Where there is stress, there may be signal.
The strategy built here is deliberately simple. It combines 2 ideas:
Entry: Buy when the Ulcer Index Down (UI) is rising — meaning drawdown pressure is increasing. Counterintuitively, this means entering as the stock comes under stress, anticipating the relief rally that often follows.
Exit: Sell when the Regime RSI bear duration is rising — meaning the bearish momentum regime has been persisting and accelerating, a signal to step aside before conditions deteriorate further.
Both indicators are momentum-of-momentum constructs. They do not ask where the price is, but how the character of price movement is changing. That distinction matters.
