Vortexa’s report of 34 tanker movements, including Iranian crude shipments, has the “US escorts through Hormuz by April 30” market at 5.5% YES, up from 5% yesterday.
The tanker activity persists despite the blockade, raising questions about risk in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iran targeting ships by April 30 market sits at 8.6% YES, down from 31% just 24 hours ago. That steep drop shows traders are skeptical about imminent Iranian targeting even as tanker traffic increases.
Disruptions in Hormuz would feed directly into crude oil pricing. The crude oil by end of June market has no specific odds available yet, but any escalation would likely move those contracts.
The US escort market has only $1,978 in actual USDC traded, meaning a $1,491 order can move odds by 5 points. A 2-point spike at 10:10 AM (7% → 10%) was the largest single move, consistent with thin liquidity and cautious positioning.
The Vortexa report signals tension more than immediate action. A YES share in the US escort market at 5.5¢ pays $1 if the resolution occurs, a 18.2x return. That payout makes sense if you expect the US to respond to increased tanker activity with naval escorts.
Watch for Pentagon announcements or signs of US Navy operational changes near Hormuz. A confirmed escort operation would move these markets sharply.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
How Many Ships Will Iran Successfully Target April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 8.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
