Vice President Vance is heading back to Pakistan for another round of peace negotiations with Iran, with the US-Iran permanent peace deal market at 12.5% YES, down from 16% yesterday.
The April 22 deadline is two days away, and the market response to Vance’s travel has been muted. The largest move in the past day was a 4-point spike at 4:27 PM, climbing from 17% to 22%, likely on optimism around the talks. The odds have since settled back down, and traders appear skeptical about a breakthrough.
The market has $547,661 in daily USDC volume, with $66,023 needed to move the odds five points. The thick order book makes significant swings unlikely without major news.
Vance’s return to Islamabad signals a push to salvage the faltering talks, but with just days left, the odds reflect doubt that a deal will materialize. A YES share priced at 12¢ pays $1 if a deal is struck, a 8.33x return. Traders are pricing a deal as unlikely unless new details emerge from the negotiations.
Watch for statements from Abbas Araghchi or JD Vance. Any indication of a signed agreement or a significant concession could swing the odds sharply.
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