US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US won’t tolerate Iran normalizing control of the Strait of Hormuz. The market for diplomatic meetings with Iran by April 30 sits at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.
Rubio’s comments point to a hardened US stance, making any near-term diplomatic resolution less likely. The market for a diplomatic meeting by April 30 sits at 1% YES, a steep drop from 22% a week ago. With only six days left, traders see almost no chance of productive talks happening.
The market for a US-led blockade lift by May 31 also moved. It trades at 59.5% YES, down from 72% yesterday. The largest move was a 5-point spike to 62% at 3:50 PM, but it didn’t hold, suggesting traders remain skeptical about a near-term deal.
Market volume is $95,253 in USDC trades over 24 hours, with $8,995 needed to move the odds by 5 points. That combination shows strong conviction among current traders but leaves room for volatility if a large order hits.
At 1¢, buying a YES share would net $1 if successful, a 100x return. But the likelihood of Trump reversing course under current conditions looks low. Traders betting on an April 30 meeting would need a major shift in US policy or unexpected diplomatic progress.
Watch for Trump’s next move on Truth Social or any sign of a breakthrough in Islamabad. A sudden announcement of talks could move these odds fast.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 59.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.7% | — | — | Trade → |
