A new military study reveals the US used up about half its Patriot missiles during the Iran conflict. The odds of Kharg Island no longer being under Iranian control by April 30 sit at 4.5% YES, down from 6% yesterday.
The depletion of US missile stockpiles has traders skeptical about the US’s ability to continue offensive operations. The Kharg Island control market shows April 30 odds at just 4.5%, while the May 31 and June 30 markets are at 13.5% and 15.5% YES, respectively. The biggest jump in expectations is between April 30 and May 31, which suggests traders expect something to change in May.
In the US Escorts in Hormuz market, odds have dropped to 6.5% YES from 22% a week ago. Losing roughly half the Patriot inventory directly limits the capacity for escort operations through the Strait of Hormuz, and the market is pricing that in.
The Kharg Island market trades a combined $66,733 in actual USDC daily, which is decent liquidity but leaves room for volatility. The US Escorts in Hormuz market is far thinner at $1,581 in actual USDC traded daily; a single large order could move that price.
Half the Patriot arsenal gone means reduced capacity for aggressive US military action in the near term. For contrarian traders, a YES share in the Kharg Island by April 30 market trades at 5¢, offering a 20x return if successful.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM or the Pentagon about resource reallocation or strategic shifts. Any announcements about restocking missile inventories or changes in operational priorities could move these odds fast.
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Kharg Island No Longer Under Iranian Control March 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 4.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 13.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
