The US government has started refunding up to $166 billion in tariffs imposed under President Trump after the Supreme Court ruled the tariffs unlawful. On Polymarket’s Trump Tariffs / Trade War market, the odds of the EU imposing retaliatory tariffs by September 30 have dropped by 25%.
Market reaction
Traders are reading the refund as a rollback of aggressive US trade policy, pushing down the probability of EU retaliation. The face value of trades sits at $0, meaning trader interest hasn’t yet translated into meaningful volume. Still, the directional move is clear: the market has shifted away from expecting near-term escalation.
Why it matters
The Supreme Court’s decision voids the tariffs and triggers refunds, acting as a judicial check on executive trade powers. That check likely reduces the EU’s urgency to impose countermeasures. For the broader trade war question, this is a concrete constraint on presidential tariff authority, not just a temporary pause.
For traders, a YES share in the “Will the EU impose retaliatory tariffs by September 30?” market now requires a belief that some new geopolitical trigger will push the EU toward retaliation within the next few months, even as the legal basis for the original US tariffs has been struck down.
What to watch
Watch for statements from the EU Commission and any moves by the US Trade Representative that could restart tensions. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s public comments on tariff policy are also worth tracking, particularly any signals about whether the administration will seek alternative legal authority for new tariffs.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 83.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 89.5% | — | — | Trade → |
