US Secretary of War Hegseth said the blockade will “stay as long as it takes.” The market for Trump’s Hormuz blockade announcement dropped to 59.5% YES, down from 77% yesterday.
The Trump Hormuz Blockade Announcement market fell 17.5 percentage points in 24 hours. Traders appear to read Hegseth’s language as a signal of prolonged US commitment. YES shares are priced at 40.5¢, offering a potential 2.47x return.
Related markets barely moved. The US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting Locations contract sits at 3.7% YES, consistent with Hegseth making no mention of diplomatic engagement. The Iran Uranium Enrichment Agreement contract holds at 6.4% YES with no meaningful change.
Daily volume in the Hormuz blockade market is $32,536 in USDC. Depth is moderate: $7,404 moves the price 5 points, meaning a single large trade could still shift the odds noticeably.
Hegseth’s framing treats the blockade as a long-term measure, not a temporary escalation tool. The contrarian bet is YES at 40.5¢, paying 2.47x if the blockade is lifted by May 31. That bet requires believing in a rapid diplomatic breakthrough or enough international pressure to force a reversal.
Watch for Trump’s next public statements on Iran, any multilateral pressure on the US to ease the blockade, and CENTCOM updates that might signal a strategic shift.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 59.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 4.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 6.8% | — | — | Trade → |