The probability of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief by April has dropped to 10%, down from 20% just 24 hours ago, as US economic pressure on Iran reaches new highs.
The April market now sits at 10% YES, down from 20% a day ago and 38% a week ago. The decline has been steady and directional, with no meaningful bounces. Traders are pricing in very little chance of any sanctions relief happening soon.
The “Economic Fury” campaign has tightened sanctions by targeting entities tied to Iranian weapons procurement, giving the US substantial economic leverage. With that leverage in place, a significant policy shift before month’s end looks unlikely based on current positioning.
The market traded $7,320 in USDC over the past 24 hours, with $461 needed to move the odds by 5 points. The largest single move was a 2-point drop. That sensitivity to small trades means individual positions can visibly shift the price, which may reflect either thin order books or strategic positioning by traders betting against relief.
At 10¢, a YES share pays $1 if sanctions relief is agreed upon by April, a 10x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe a dramatic policy reversal is coming, which nothing in the current signals supports.
Watch for statements from the White House and Treasury Department. Any announcement of new licensing guidance or formal relief measures would move this market fast. Trump’s communications on Truth Social are also worth monitoring for unexpected policy shifts.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 11.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 5.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 37.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 22.5% | — | — | Trade → |
