The US imposed new sanctions targeting Hengli Petrochemical, a major Chinese buyer of Iranian crude, and Polymarket odds on Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026, collapsed to 0.9% YES, down from 6% just 24 hours ago.
## Market reaction
The sanctions hit multiple Iran-related contracts simultaneously. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April dropped to 3.4% YES, down from 14% yesterday. With just 6 days left before the April 30 deadline, traders are pricing in near-zero probability of a diplomatic deal this month.
Longer-dated contracts also fell hard. The June 30 uranium stockpile contract trades at 23.5% YES, down from 76% a week ago. The December 31 contract sits at 40.5% YES, roughly halved from 80% a week ago.
## Why it matters
The across-the-board sell-off in Iran deal contracts suggests traders read these sanctions as a genuine escalation, not a negotiating tactic. Every timeframe, from April through December, saw steep declines, which points to a reassessment of the entire diplomatic trajectory rather than just near-term pessimism.
## What to watch
Liquidity in these markets is thin. Face value sits at $289,200, but real USDC traded is just $39,286. The April market can be moved with as little as $119, making it vulnerable to large single trades. The biggest price swing across these contracts was a modest 8-point spike.
Buying YES on the April contract at 1¢ offers a 100x return if a last-minute deal materializes, but the contract expires in 6 days with no public signals of progress. Watch for official statements from Tehran and Washington, particularly from Trump or senior Iranian officials. Any shift in rhetoric could move these thin markets fast.
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Iran Agrees To Surrender Enriched Uranium Stockpile| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 0.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 40.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 23.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 3.2% | — | — | Trade → |
