The likelihood of an Israel-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 has dropped to 0.7% YES, down from 3% just 24 hours ago, as the US reviews Tehran’s latest proposal and negotiations between Israel and Iran stall.
The June 30 sub-market sits at 9% YES. The April 30 contract, with just 6 days left, is effectively flatlining. Traders have moved the market by only a 2-point spike, indicating low confidence in a near-term breakthrough. The 8-point gap between the April and June contracts suggests some hope for progress over the next two months, but current sentiment is bleak.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz market sits at 60.5% YES, down sharply from 72% a day ago. The market requires $8,975 to move it 5 points, indicating solid institutional presence but declining confidence in a short-term resolution.
Combined 24h volume for the peace deal markets is $24,607 in face value, but actual USDC traded is just $1,216, a sign that traders are cautious. The blockade market sees more activity, with $95,253 in actual USDC traded.
The US delay in responding to Iran’s proposal is a bearish signal for imminent peace. At 0.7%, a YES share on the April 30 peace deal offers a 142x return, but the odds reflect deep skepticism. For traders to bet YES, they’d need to believe in a surprise diplomatic breakthrough within the next week.
Watch for any statements from President Trump or Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. A shift in rhetoric or a new negotiation angle could move these odds. The next round of talks in Islamabad is the most likely catalyst.
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Israel X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 60.5% | — | — | Trade → |
