The Acting Attorney General ordered the rescheduling of FDA-approved and state-licensed medical marijuana to Schedule III. The “Weed rescheduled by December 31?” market sits at 44.4% YES, down from 62% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
Traders moved quickly after the announcement, hitting the December 31 market hardest. Current odds are 44.4%, though the market spiked 8 points around 12:30 PM before pulling back. The June 30 market dropped more steeply, now at 10.5%, down from 34% a day ago. Traders are clearly discounting the chance that rescheduling gets completed in the near term.
Why it matters
USDC volume runs $46,442/day for the December 31 contract and $50,299/day for June 30. But the order book is thin: just $775 moves the December 31 odds by 5 percentage points. Even moderate-sized trades can swing prices substantially.
The rescheduling order follows President Trump’s 2025 directive on cannabis policy. Moving marijuana to Schedule III is a concrete step, but the DEA hearing scheduled for June 29 is where the real outcome gets determined. At 44¢, a YES share pays $1 if rescheduling is completed by December 31, a 2.25x return.
What to watch
The DEA’s final rule publication is the next major catalyst. Statements from Pam Bondi or Terrance Cole, and any legal challenges to the rescheduling order, will directly move these odds. Traders considering this bet should focus on signals from the DEA proceeding and the June 29 hearing outcome.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 44.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 10% | — | — | Trade → |
