The United States has prohibited Israel from bombing Lebanon during the recently brokered 10-day ceasefire. The odds for Israel announcing a suspension of its Lebanon offensive by April 30 are at 96.2% YES, up from 87% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
The April 30 sub-market moved the most. A single 9-point spike at 1:17 PM drove the odds from 65% to 74% in minutes. The May 31 and June 30 markets are holding at 97.8% and 98.4% YES, respectively.
Trading volume in the suspension market is $339,785 in USDC over the last 24 hours. The order book requires $25,577 to move the price by 5 points. The largest single move was a 28-point surge at 1:15 PM, showing how quickly the market repriced after the policy announcement.
Why it matters
Trump’s prohibition signals a direct U.S. commitment to enforcing the ceasefire, which could stabilize the region temporarily. But Hezbollah is excluded from this agreement, which limits the ceasefire’s long-term durability. At 96¢, a YES share pays $1 if Israel announces the suspension by April 30. The question now is whether this U.S. intervention leads to broader de-escalation or is a temporary pause.
What to watch
Keep an eye on Netanyahu’s statements and any official Israeli government press releases, as these could either confirm or disrupt the current trajectory. Watch also for shifts in IDF operations or Hezbollah’s military activity.
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Israel X Hezbollah Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 96.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 93.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 96.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 97.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 98.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 89.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 14 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 21 | 8% | — | — | Trade → |
