The US has paused negotiations with Iran with 10 days left before the April 30 ceasefire deadline. The ceasefire-by-April-30 market sits at 22.5% YES, down from 36% a week ago.
Vice President JD Vance canceled his trip to Pakistan around the same time, pushing the ceasefire end announcement by April 21 market to 13.9% YES. The largest move was a 7-point spike in the ceasefire end market at 4:54 PM, pointing to a surge in bearish sentiment on diplomatic progress.
The April 30 market dropped 4 points at 4:28 PM. Order book depth is thin: just $841 would move the price 5 points, making the market vulnerable to swings from larger trades even with daily volume at $54,670.
The negotiation halt raises the risk of resumed hostilities. With 10 days until the deadline, traders are pricing in military action over resolution. A YES share at 22.5¢ pays $1 if the ceasefire holds, a 3.3x return.
Watch for CENTCOM statements and any intermediary action from Oman or Qatar. New talks or shifts in rhetoric from either side would likely move these markets.
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Trump Announces End Of Military Operations Against Iran| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 22.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 13.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 6% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 22 | 1.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 19.5% | — | — | Trade → |
