The US is ordering 4,300 JASSM-ER cruise missiles, signaling ongoing military operations in Iran. On Polymarket, the contract for Trump announcing an end to military operations against Iran by March 1 sits at 0% YES, meaning traders see no chance of near-term resolution.
The missile restock directly affects the Trump’s end of military operations against Iran market, where odds for a March 1 announcement are effectively zero. Meanwhile, the US declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026 contract is at 8% YES, up from 7% yesterday.
A 4,300-missile order represents a large resource commitment to the Iran conflict. The market’s term structure for the war declaration contract shows a 7-point jump between the April 30 and December 31 expiries, which suggests traders expect a possible catalyst in the second half of the year. With 252 days until resolution, the December 31 odds price in a small but real chance of formal escalation.
Trading volume is thin: just $85 in USDC traded in the last 24 hours on the declaration of war contract. The order book requires nearly $4,000 to move the price 5 percentage points, so the market is relatively stable absent a major event.
For traders, the March 1 end-of-operations contract at 0% is a non-starter. Buying YES at 8¢ on a US war declaration by year-end pays 12.5x if Congress takes that step.
Watch for Trump’s statements, Pentagon press briefings, and any Congressional action related to the war. These will most directly move market pricing.
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Where Will The Next Us Iran Diplomatic Meeting Happen 455| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 12.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 7.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
