The U.S. State Department is offering $10 million for information on Abu Ala al-Wala’i, leader of the Iran-aligned militia Kata’ib Sayyid ul-Shuhada. The market for Trump’s acceptance of Iranian demands is at 5% YES, down from 11% yesterday.
Market reaction
The bounty coincides with a sharp move against any near-term U.S.-Iran deal. The April 30 market dropped from 11% to 5% YES, with traders pricing out any agreement on oil sanctions relief by the end of April. The June 30 market trades at 24%, so traders still see some possibility of a breakthrough on a longer timeline.
On liquidity: the face value of the markets is misleading. While $304,700 is the daily face value, actual USDC traded is only $26,558. The order book requires $14,472 to move the price 5 percentage points, meaning modest liquidity and susceptibility to large trades. The largest price move in the last 24 hours was a 6-point drop after the bounty announcement.
Why it matters
The $10 million bounty is a direct escalation against Iran’s proxy network, making it harder to imagine Trump conceding to Iranian demands in the near term. At 5¢, a YES share pays out $1, a 20x return. Traders would need to believe in an unexpected diplomatic reversal within the next 7 days for this to pay off.
What to watch
White House statements or any surprise diplomatic contact between the U.S. and Iran. If either side signals a shift, particularly via Truth Social, these markets could move fast given the thin order books.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 37.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 23.5% | — | — | Trade → |
