The US Navy issued an advisory about unclear mine threats in the Strait of Hormuz. Odds for the UK sending warships through the strait by April 30, 2026, are at 6% YES, down from 12% a week ago.
The advisory prompted traders to reassess the probability of UK naval deployment. The market dropped by half over the past week, with current odds of 6% reflecting concerns about uncertain mine locations and Iran’s small boat capabilities. The cost to shift this market by 5 percentage points is $427, a thin order book.
Trading volume on the UK warship market sits at $8,344 in USDC traded over the last 24 hours. That’s real money moving despite the odds decrease, though the $427 needed to move the market five points means a moderate investment could shift prices.
The advisory points to a real threat, but the likelihood of UK intervention remains low. Traders appear skeptical that the UK will commit military resources without clearer threats or coordination with allies. At 6¢, a YES share pays $1 if the UK sends warships by April 30, a 16.67x return. Without a direct catalyst, traders see limited upside. Any confirmed deployment by the UK Ministry of Defence would quickly change these odds.
Watch for statements from the UK Ministry of Defence or allied naval movements near Hormuz, either of which could move this market fast.
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How Many Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz This Week Apr 6 12| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 12 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 7.5% | — | — | Trade → |
