The U.S. Navy’s blockade of Iranian ports is now in its fourth day, with about 500 vessels trapped and traffic running at 10-25% of pre-conflict levels. The April 30 market for traffic returning to normal sits at 6.5% YES, down from 12% a week ago.
U.S. forces are conducting boarding operations to enforce sanctions and restrict contraband. The April 30 market reflects deep skepticism about a quick resolution given the fragile ceasefire and heavy military presence in the strait.
The May 31 market trades at 83% YES. That 76-point spread between the two contracts means traders expect the blockade to end sometime in May, not April. Daily USDC volume on the April 30 market is $2,109, with only $621 in order book depth to move the price 5 points, so a single concentrated trade could shift the line noticeably.
The blockade is a direct military and economic escalation. Trump has expressed optimism about mediation efforts, but the April odds say traders aren’t buying it. A YES bet at 6¢ pays 16.67x if traffic normalizes, but that requires a rapid diplomatic breakthrough and a meaningful shift in U.S.-Iranian negotiations within days.
Watch for Trump’s next public statements and any movement from Pakistani mediation efforts. Either could move the April and May contracts quickly.
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Which Countries Will Send Warships Through The Strait Of Hormuz April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 5.5% | -1¢ | $25K | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 82.5% | -0.5¢ | $7K | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 12 | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | Trade → |
