Brent crude futures jumped 3.48% to $101.91 per barrel as US-Iran tensions flared. The ceasefire-by-April-30 market sits at 18.5% YES, down from 32% yesterday.
Market reaction
The price movement follows the US Navy’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The April 30 ceasefire market dropped 13.5 percentage points in YES odds over the past 24 hours. Traders are pricing in low odds of a ceasefire within the next nine days.
Why it matters
The market has $68,607 in actual USDC volume, with a depth of $4,074 required to move the odds five percentage points. The largest price move was a 5-point spike at 6:59 PM, but the broader trend has been downward as tensions mount.
The blockade, combined with Iran’s rejection of Trump’s claims about halted executions, points to deteriorating diplomacy. New military actions and hawkish rhetoric are driving bearish sentiment on a ceasefire. Buying YES at 19¢ offers a potential 5.26x return, but that requires an unforeseen diplomatic breakthrough.
What to watch
CENTCOM’s next briefing and any statements from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar. Any signal of resumed talks or softened rhetoric could move the odds.
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