CENTCOM confirmed the U.S. naval blockade has turned back 38 ships from Iranian ports. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by June 30 sits at 0% YES.
The blockade’s continuation means persistent disruption in the “Strait of Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal” market. With 67 days left, the odds reflect skepticism about traffic normalization by June’s end. President Trump and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are the key actors. The blockade’s enforcement suggests any thaw in tensions is unlikely soon.
Trading volume on this market shows no activity in the past 24 hours, a sign of stalled trader interest or conviction. The “Iran Successfully Targets Ships” market, by contrast, has surged to 75% YES as traders price in further escalations. Volume there: $5,118 in USDC traded over the last day.
The blockade reduces the likelihood of a swift resolution and points to prolonged tensions. A YES share at 0¢ pays $1 if traffic normalizes by June, a bet few seem willing to make.
Watch diplomatic channels for any breakthrough or de-escalation. Statements from the U.S. State Department or Iran’s IRGC Navy could shift the odds. Trump’s public communications on policy stance are worth monitoring closely.
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Which Countries Will Send Warships Through The Strait Of Hormuz April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 75.2% | — | — | Trade → |
