CENTCOM’s announcement that the US naval blockade focuses on Iranian ports rather than the Strait of Hormuz has shifted market expectations. The odds for Trump lifting the Strait blockade by May 31 sit at 82% YES, steady over the past day.
The CENTCOM clarification hit the April 19 market hardest. It dropped to 17.5% YES from a 34% high. The April 17 market is at 5.6% YES with little time left before resolution.
The Strait of Hormuz traffic market is at 57.5% YES for April 30, down from 60% yesterday. Traders are pricing in a slower resolution. The May 31 market holds at 82% YES.
Volume across the blockade markets was $33,928 USDC over the last 24 hours. The April 19 market’s largest single move was a 6-point fall at 5:53 PM, pointing to a concentrated trader exit. The CENTCOM statement likely signals tactical restraint, not a strategic policy shift. Targeting Iranian ports instead of the Strait reduces immediate escalation risk but doesn’t change the underlying confrontation. At 17.5¢, a YES share for April 19 pays 5.7x if Trump reverses course, though that requires a dramatic policy change within three days.
Watch for Trump’s next public statements and any Iranian response. A shift in CENTCOM’s operational language could move these markets fast.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 84% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 5.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 16.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 4.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 57.5% | — | — | Trade → |
