The U.S. is exporting natural gas at full capacity, unable to meet the demand spike caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure. The WTI Crude Oil market for hitting $160 in April sits at 0.2% YES.
Market reaction
The inability of the U.S. to increase exports means the global supply gap won’t close soon. The WTI Crude Oil market is unchanged at 0.2% YES over the last 24 hours. With only 2 days left in April, there’s minimal trading activity.
On the shipping side, the odds of 80 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 are at 1.2% YES, down from 24% a week ago. Actual USDC traded is just $390/day. A 24-point spike earlier in the week reversed quickly, and traders aren’t pricing in a quick resolution.
Why it matters
U.S. natural gas export capacity is maxed out with no new capacity coming online soon. Energy supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted. At 0.2% YES, a share in WTI hitting $160 by April 30 costs 0.2¢, a long shot that would require a drastic escalation to pay off at 500x.
What to watch
Any shifts from OPEC+, or moves by Trump or the Iranian President, could change these markets in the final days of April. A surprise announcement or military activity would be the most likely catalyst for price movement.
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Will Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz On Any Day End Of April| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 0.2% | — | — | Trade → |
