US motorists are cutting back on fuel consumption as the Iran conflict drives petrol prices above $4 per gallon. The Crude Oil all-time high by April 30 market sits at 1.2% YES, down from 2% a week ago.
Market reaction
Even with the largest supply disruption in history, the Crude Oil All Time High by April 30 market is flat at 1.2%. Traders appear to expect de-escalation or strategic interventions that could stabilize prices. Volume is at $2,513 in USDC, and just $695 would shift the price by 5 percentage points.
Why it matters
The closed Strait of Hormuz and disrupted oil supply are pushing crude prices up. But the odds suggest traders are skeptical that prices will sustain a rally large enough to set a new all-time high by month-end. The market appears to be pricing in OPEC+ production strategies and potential peace talks against ongoing military actions.
What to watch
A YES share at 1.2¢ pays 83.3x if crude breaches the record by April 30, but the geopolitical path between here and there is unpredictable. Watch for OPEC+ meeting outcomes, US strategic petroleum reserve releases, or any shifts in diplomatic engagement. New military or diplomatic actions in the next few days could move this market quickly in either direction.
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