The U.S. has depleted nearly 90% of some air defense and precision missile capabilities after weeks of engagement in Iran, and the odds of China invading Taiwan by June 30 have moved to 2.5% YES, up from 2% yesterday.
Market reaction
The China invasion of Taiwan by June 30 market sits at 2.5% YES. Face value volume is $20,037 daily, though actual USDC traded is a modest $495, with $9,148 needed to shift odds by 5 points.
The U.S. military action in 2026 market has seen no significant trades recently. The munitions shortage constrains the U.S. ability to open new fronts, which likely reduces the probability of strikes on additional countries this year.
Why it matters
The depletion directly affects U.S. deterrence capacity in the Western Pacific. If China’s military planners assess that the U.S. cannot sustain simultaneous operations in the Middle East and the Taiwan Strait, the calculus around a Taiwan move changes. The 0.5 percentage point jump in a single day on a low-liquidity market suggests at least some traders are pricing this in.
What to watch
Statements from U.S. defense officials on munitions restocking timelines. PLA naval or air activity near Taiwan, particularly any uptick in strait crossings or amphibious exercises. Any public rhetoric from Xi Jinping on reunification. Each of these could move this thin market quickly.
At 25¢, a YES share pays $1 if China invades by June 30, a 4x return. The low liquidity means both entry and exit carry slippage risk.
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