A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B launched from the USS Tripoli in the Arabian Sea as part of Operation Epic Fury. The odds of US escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 sit at 1.9% YES, down from 7% just 24 hours ago.
The F-35B launch adds to U.S. military presence in the region amid ongoing tensions with Iran, but the US escorts in Hormuz market has trended downward from 18% a week ago. With only six days until resolution, the odds reflect skepticism about an imminent escort mission despite the show of force.
The market saw a combined 24-hour volume of $23,204 (face value) but only $1,276 in actual USDC traded. The order book is thin, needing just $732 to move the price 5 percentage points, which makes it susceptible to swings from single large orders. The largest move in the past day was a 2-point drop at 11:47 AM, pointing to trader hesitation around a timely US escort.
The aircraft launch from the Tripoli represents continued U.S. power projection in the Arabian Sea but doesn’t point to an immediate shift toward escorting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. At 2¢, a YES share pays $1 if escorts occur by April 30, a 50x return. For this bet to pay off, traders would need to believe in a last-minute policy change or military announcement.
Watch for official U.S. military announcements or credible tracking data showing U.S. warships actively escorting commercial vessels through Hormuz. Either could move market odds sharply in the remaining days.
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Will China Invade Taiwan June 30 2026| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | 2.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
