The US-Israel conflict with Iran has intensified, closing the Strait of Hormuz. The probability of crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 now sits at 2% YES, down from 3% a day ago.
Market reaction
The Strait of Hormuz handles 20% of global oil transit, and its closure has traders pricing in higher oil. The WTI Crude Oil Price in April 2026 market is moving on compounded disruptions from the US-Israel war with Iran and tensions in the Baltic Sea. With seven days left on April 30 contracts, the probability of WTI hitting $160 is being closely watched. Russian crude tankers are also rerouting away from Swedish waters amid EU/G7 sanctions, adding further pressure on oil supply.
The Crude Oil All Time High by April 30 market sits at 2.0% YES, showing traders remain skeptical about a near-term price surge even with these supply disruptions.
Why it matters
Trading volume for the crude oil high market is $72,279 in face value, with $2,006 in actual USDC exchanged. It takes $1,020 to move the price 5 percentage points, meaning a single large order could shift the odds. The largest price move in the last 24 hours was a 1-point drop, consistent with tempered trader expectations despite ongoing disruptions.
At 2¢, a YES share pays $1 if crude oil exceeds its all-time high by April 30, a potential 50x return. Hitting that threshold would require significant further escalation in geopolitical tensions or unexpected supply shocks beyond what’s already priced in.
What to watch
Any OPEC+ announcements on production adjustments could move these markets quickly. Shifts in US-Iran negotiations affecting oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz are the most direct catalyst. Additional sanctions or military actions targeting oil infrastructure would also register immediately in these contracts.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 10.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 2.4% | — | — | Trade → |
