US-Iran tensions keep Fed rate cuts unlikely in 2026 amid inflation concerns

By Estefano Gomez · Published May 15, 2026 · 1 min read · Source: Crypto Briefing

## Market Snapshot

In the gold price predictions market for May 2026, the likelihood of gold reaching $5,400 this month is currently priced at 1.4% YES, showing a decline from 2% in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the Fed rate cuts prediction market indicates a 67% YES probability that there will be no rate cuts in 2026, down slightly from 70% a day ago.

## Key Takeaways

– Market behavior suggests a consistent view with no Fed rate cuts in 2026 due to geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns. – The current geopolitical climate appears to support safe-haven demand for gold, yet the impact remains moderate as prices have not surged significantly. – Recent developments are consistent with maintaining current interest rates, providing Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh with political cover against rate-cut pressures.

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