Iran’s enforcement of new rules in the Strait of Hormuz has heightened tensions, with the US dismissing Iran’s ceasefire conditions. The odds of a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1.1% YES, down from 12% last week.
The market for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 shows just a 1% chance. Odds for April 15 have decreased to 6.5% YES, while April 30 is at 17.5%. The sharpest decline is in the short term, indicating traders doubt a quick resolution. April 30 and May 31 show a notable jump, suggesting traders expect a potential catalyst in late April.
Traders have invested $430,689 in USDC into this market, with $12,758 needed to shift the odds by 5 points for April 7. The largest recent move was a minor 2-point spike for April 30, indicating no major new developments. The April 15 order book depth, requiring over $41,000 to move odds by 5 points, suggests institutional interest.
Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz poses significant geopolitical risks, affecting about 20% of global oil. The market’s steep decline in short-term ceasefire odds reflects this. For a YES share at 17.5% for April 30 to be profitable, traders must believe in a diplomatic breakthrough within 27 days. Given the current standoff and US operations, this seems unlikely without external mediation.
Watch for diplomatic efforts from Oman and Qatar or unexpected conciliatory moves from either side. A statement from CENTCOM or a change in US rhetoric could also influence these markets.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Share
Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 1.1% | 0.0¢ | $1.4M | Trade → |
| April 15 | 6.5% | 0.0¢ | $749K | Trade → |
| April 30 | 17.5% | 0.0¢ | $942K | Trade → |
| May 31 | 36.5% | 0.0¢ | $390K | Trade → |
| June 30 | 51.5% | 0.0¢ | $142K | Trade → |
| December 31 | 68.5% | 0.0¢ | $102K | Trade → |
