Iran’s nuclear threat is shaking Middle East stability. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 now sits at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 12% a week ago.
Traders are nervous, with the April 30 ceasefire market dropping to 17.5% from 24% in just 24 hours. The May 31 market fell 2 points to 36.5% YES. Iran’s actions are hurting chances for peace. The April 15 market is at 6.5% YES, with 12 days until resolution. The spread between April 30 and May 31 shows a 19-point jump, hinting at expected developments.
In the Iranian regime fall market, odds have slightly increased. Falling by June 30 is at 13.5% YES, up from 12% yesterday but below last week’s 20%. The regime fall market trades $439,688/day face value, but only $59,602 in actual USDC, indicating a thin market easily swayed by large bets. The largest recent move was a 1-point spike at 7:21 PM.
The US-Iran ceasefire markets are trading significant face volumes, but actual USDC reveals the true picture. It takes $12,352 to move the April 7 market 5 points, showing a thin order book. Meanwhile, $19,925 is needed to move the April 30 market, suggesting stronger trader conviction there.
Despite social media noise, the destabilization risk is real. At 1¢, a YES share on the April 7 ceasefire market pays $1 if it resolves — a 100x return if a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough occurs. For that bet to make sense, rapid de-escalation within four days is necessary. Expect these markets to stay bearish unless significant diplomatic shifts happen.
Watch for any intermediary activity from Oman or Qatar or potential changes in US rhetoric. Hegseth’s next Pentagon briefing could significantly influence these markets.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — currently 13.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Us X Iran Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 1.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 36.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 51.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 68.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 13.5% | — | — | Trade → |
