## Market Snapshot The “US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31” market is priced at 14.5% YES, slightly higher from 14% the previous day. The “US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31” market is priced at 8.5% YES, down from 10% a day earlier.
## Key Takeaways – The report suggests limited new damage to Iran’s nuclear program, indicating no major escalation in military impact. – Market pricing reflects decreased likelihood of a new US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31. – The assessment appears to reduce the probability of the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by the same date.
## Article Body US intelligence has assessed that recent strikes caused only limited new damage to Iran’s nuclear program, according to sources. This information comes amid the ongoing US-Israel joint military campaign targeting key nuclear sites in Iran. The campaign follows a series of events, including the termination of the 2015 JCPOA by Iran and subsequent military actions. Despite the military efforts, the US estimates that Iran’s nuclear weaponization is still years away, suggesting no immediate threat. This development comes as nuclear negotiations remain stalled due to disagreements over enrichment levels and facility dismantlement.
## Market Interpretation The news of limited damage to Iran’s nuclear program is consistent with a reduced likelihood of a new US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31, suggesting moderate impact on market pricing. Additionally, the probability of the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by the same date appears to decrease, as the report indicates no significant change in the status of Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
## What to Watch Watch for any shifts in diplomatic efforts or announcements from key actors such as US President Donald Trump or Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Further reports from the IAEA or statements from the US State Department could indicate changes in the nuclear negotiation landscape. Observers will also be looking for any developments regarding Iran’s compliance with international nuclear agreements.
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Us Iran Nuclear Deal May 31 974| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 14.5% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 8.5% | — | — | View market → |
| December 31 | 27.5% | — | — | View market → |
