The US has integrated Ukraine’s Sky Map counter-drone platform following Iranian strikes. Markets for Iran striking other countries by April 30, 2026, sit at 100% YES, unchanged.
## Market reaction
The Iran striking Israel by April 30 market and related contracts show no trades or volume shifts in response to the news. At 100% YES, the market treats further Iranian military action as a foregone conclusion. The US defensive adoption hasn’t moved the needle.
## Why it matters
There is zero USDC movement in these markets. Traders are holding steady, and the 100% price means betting YES on Iranian strikes offers no return. The market has fully priced in continued hostilities, and the Sky Map integration registers as a tactical adjustment rather than anything that changes the probability of Iranian action through the end of April.
## What to watch
A change in operational language from CENTCOM or unexpected Iranian de-escalation could create actual movement in these contracts. Until then, the 100% price leaves no room for surprise unless a major event breaks the current pattern.
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Iran Military Action Against April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 18% | — | — | Trade → |