Reports claim the US informed Israel that the ceasefire with Iran will end on Sunday. The odds for an Israel-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 sit at 3% YES.
Traders in the Israel-Iran Permanent Peace Deal market are pricing in the potential end of the ceasefire. The April 30 contract holds at 3% YES, unchanged over 24 hours. The June 30 contract has dropped to 13.5% YES, down from 19% yesterday. The 10-point spread between the April and June contracts shows traders expect no peace deal soon.
The Trump Endorsement of Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon market is fully priced at 100% YES, though the ceasefire expiration could introduce volatility if hostilities resume.
The permanent peace deal market shows combined daily volumes of $42,381 in face value, but actual USDC traded is just $3,004. The April contract’s depth is thin: $322 moves it 5 points, meaning even modest trades could swing the price.
The US-Israeli coordination mentioned in these reports may be a tactical move to pressure Iran into compliance or signal readiness to escalate. With only 7 days until the April 30 resolution, a YES bet requires a rapid diplomatic breakthrough. At 3¢, a YES share pays $1 if the deal is signed, a 33.3x return. But that requires a drastic shift in negotiations.
Watch for Trump or State Department statements confirming or denying these ceasefire developments. Any official confirmation could move the markets considerably.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Israel X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 3% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 13.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
