U.S. forces have boarded a second tanker, the M/T Majestic X, alleging it carries Iranian oil. The odds of the U.S. Navy escorting a commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 are at 8% YES, up from 6% yesterday.
The April 30 sub-market moved 2 points from 6% to 8% YES in the last 24 hours. Traders are pricing in a higher probability of U.S. military involvement to protect commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. With seven days left until resolution, daily face value is at $25,826, though actual USDC traded is $1,581.
The question is whether this boarding prompts further U.S. naval action. Odds remain low, but the second tanker seizure in quick succession points toward a more aggressive posture. The depth to move the market 5 percentage points is $1,031, meaning a single significant order could shift odds materially in a thin book.
For traders, a YES share at 8¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 12.5x return. This bet requires believing the U.S. will escalate its military presence in response to the tanker boardings before April 30.
Watch for Pentagon or CENTCOM announcements. Any confirmation of U.S. Navy escort operations or a policy shift regarding the Strait of Hormuz would move these markets fast.
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