The US has indefinitely extended its ceasefire with Iran, but no date has been set for new peace talks. The odds of a permanent peace deal by April 30 have fallen to 16% YES, down from 18% yesterday.
Markets are bearish on any near-term diplomatic breakthrough. The US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting Dates market for April 23 sits at 1.3% YES. The June 30 diplomatic meeting location market has ticked up to 6.5% YES, with traders pricing in a longer timeline before any qualifying meeting happens.
Combined 24-hour face value is $1,740,575, with $423,360 in actual USDC traded. It takes $28,110 to move the peace deal market 5 points, so small orders won’t shift the price. A 4-point spike occurred at 1:42 PM, driven by rumors of a potential interim agreement, but the lack of concrete progress quickly deflated it.
The indefinite ceasefire extension without a scheduled negotiation date points to a stalled diplomatic process. At 16¢, buying YES on an April 30 peace deal pays $1 if it resolves, a 6.25x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe a breakthrough happens this week.
Watch for statements from US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff or Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. A confirmation that talks are resuming or a significant policy shift could move these odds fast.
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Where Will The Next Us Iran Diplomatic Meeting Happen 455| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 16.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 40.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 60.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 23 | 1.3% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 24 | 6.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 25 | 9.3% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 26 | 11% | — | — | Trade → |
