The cancellation of U.S. envoys’ visit to Islamabad has cast doubt on peace talks, with the odds of a U.S.-Iran peace deal by April 30 dropping to 2% YES from 10% just a day ago.
Market reaction
Odds for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 fell to 3.7% YES, down from 6% yesterday. The April 30 peace deal contract sank to 2% YES. The May 31 and June 30 contracts trade at 32% and 50.5% YES, respectively, meaning traders expect any deal to come later if at all.
Why it matters
Volume tells the story. The peace deal market saw $275,178 in USDC traded over the last 24 hours, but order book depth shows it takes $27,667 to move the odds 5 points. The market is liquid but still sensitive to large trades. The enriched uranium market saw $4,778 in USDC traded, with just $2,529 needed to shift the price 5 points.
What to watch
The absence of direct U.S.-Iran meetings and the envoys’ cancelled trip point to real obstacles in reaching any agreement by April 30. At 2¢, buying YES shares on an April 30 peace deal offers a 50x return, but the current diplomatic impasse makes that a long shot. Watch for announcements from Pakistani mediators, statements from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, or new directives from President Trump.
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Iran Agrees To End Enrichment Of Uranium April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 3.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 2.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 32.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 50.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 2% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 40% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 28.5% | — | — | Trade → |
