Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine announced the US is enforcing a global maritime blockade against Iran. The Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by June market now sits at 0% YES.
The blockade has already turned back 34 vessels. The Strait of Hormuz traffic market prices no return to normalcy by June 30, with traders showing no confidence in a short-term resolution.
The UK warships through Strait of Hormuz market is at 2% YES, meaning traders see almost no chance of near-term UK naval involvement despite the US blockade. The US escorts in Hormuz market is at 4.5% YES, giving a moderate probability to US Navy escorts for commercial ships.
Trade volume is thin. The UK warship market traded $1,142 in USDC over the past day. Order books this shallow can move on relatively small trades, and the low volume points to weak conviction among participants.
This blockade is a jump from economic sanctions to direct naval interdiction. Any further announcements from CENTCOM or allied nations could move these markets sharply. At 4¢, a YES share on US escorts offers a potential 22x return for those betting on rapid military escalation.
Watch for statements from the UK Ministry of Defence or CENTCOM on increased involvement in the region. These markets are thinly traded and could reprice quickly on new information.
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Which Countries Will Send Warships Through The Strait Of Hormuz April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 2.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 4.5% | — | — | Trade → |
