US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the Strait of Hormuz could reopen without demining it entirely. Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by June 30 is at ? YES.
Wright’s comments point toward a partial easing of the blockade, which has been in place since February’s military operations against Iran. The ships transiting by April 30 market sits at 1.3% YES, down from 51% a week ago.
The collapse in that market makes sense. Wright’s comments suggest partial reopening is possible, but ongoing negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program complicate the timeline. With six days left in April, the odds of 80 ships transiting in a single day are low even if some traffic resumes. Face value of daily volume is $10,129, with $449 in actual USDC traded. It takes only $542 to move the odds 5 percentage points, so the market is thin and prone to swings.
Wright’s statement shifts the framing from full demining to diplomatic resolution. A YES share for traffic normalization by June 30 could pay if negotiations show concrete progress. For now, the market is priced for skepticism.
Watch for updates from joint U.S.-Iran negotiations and U.S. Navy announcements on mine-clearing progress. Any shift in Pentagon statements could move these odds quickly.
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Will Us Crude Oil Reserves Fall To May 1| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | 9.3% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.3% | — | — | Trade → |
