A U.S. combat search and rescue team is confirmed inside Iran to recover a missing F-15E crew member. US forces entering Iran by April 30 is now at 86% YES, up from 62% just 24 hours ago.
The revelation of U.S. ground troops in Iranian territory led to a significant leap in market odds. The April 30 market jumped 24 points in a single day. The December 31 market saw a milder increase, sitting at 90.5% YES, up from 72%. Both markets reflect the expectation of continued U.S. military ground operations in Iran.
Trading activity surged, with combined 24-hour volume across these markets at $5,069,224 in USDC. The April 30 market requires $85,204 to shift odds by five points, indicating a thick order book. The largest single move was a 4-point spike at 2:14 PM, moving from 78% to 83%.
This confirmation of U.S. ground operations escalates the situation but aligns with Operation Epic Fury’s aggressive posture against Iran. For traders, at 86¢, a YES share pays $1 if forces remain in Iran by April 30 — a 16% return. Believing in further escalation could justify a YES position if you expect more ground operations in the next 27 days.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM or the Pentagon press secretary. Any new announcements about ground operations or congressional moves on war powers could push the odds even higher.
Markets Impacted
- US forces enter Iran by April 30? — currently 86.5% YES
- US forces enter Iran by December 31? — currently 90.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 86.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 90.5% | — | — | Trade → |
