## Market Snapshot The market for a US declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026, is currently priced at 7.5% YES, up from 6% 24 hours ago. Odds for Donald Trump announcing the lifting of the Strait of Hormuz blockade by May 31, 2026, have decreased to 36.5% YES, down from 40% yesterday.
## Key Takeaways – Clarification of “Project Freedom” as a coordination effort suggests a decreased likelihood of a US declaration of war on Iran. – The reframing indicates a softer stance, consistent with a reduced probability of an imminent US blockade lift announcement. – Market activity reflects a lower chance of US military invasion of Iran, aligning with the shift from military escort to non-military coordination.
## Article Body The Wall Street Journal’s national security reporter has clarified that US officials have reframed President Trump’s announcement regarding the Strait of Hormuz situation. Contrary to initial reports suggesting a military escort mission, “Project Freedom” is now described as a coordination effort to guide ships through safe lanes. This development follows heightened tensions stemming from US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran and Iran’s retaliatory blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil transit route. The clarification aims to de-escalate the crisis by emphasizing diplomatic and intelligence collaboration rather than direct military action.
## Market Interpretation The clarification of “Project Freedom” is consistent with scenarios where a US declaration of war on Iran appears less likely. Markets seem to interpret this shift as supportive of a non-military resolution, with a moderate impact on pricing for the US declaration of war and invasion markets. This reframing decreases the probability of an immediate escalation scenario, aligning with a preference for diplomatic solutions.
## What to Watch Observers should monitor further statements from US officials regarding the Hormuz situation, as well as any developments in US-Iran diplomatic talks. Key dates include May 31, 2026, for potential changes in the blockade status. Additionally, any shifts in military posture or international mediation efforts could influence market perceptions and pricing in the coming weeks.
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Will The Us Officially Declare War On Iran| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 7.5% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 36.5% | — | — | View market → |
