US Central Command confirmed Marine and Navy support for a blockade targeting Iran, pushing the Kharg Island control by April 30 market to 2.9% YES, down from 4% yesterday.
The blockade’s enforcement by US forces has not lifted the Kharg Island odds. The drop from 4% to 2.9% suggests traders are skeptical about immediate action on Kharg. The June 30 market also dipped to 10.5% YES. Meanwhile, the US escorts through Hormuz by April 30 market rose to 15.5% YES, up from 14% a week ago.
Traders are pricing in more US Navy escort operations through the Strait of Hormuz rather than any near-term territorial shift at Kharg Island. With CENTCOM’s blockade now underway, the market divergence between falling Kharg odds and rising escort odds points to expectations of safe-passage enforcement, not direct confrontation over Iranian-controlled infrastructure.
Trading volume on the Kharg Island markets is $18,334 actual USDC daily. It takes $8,846 to move the April 30 sub-market price by 5 points. The US escorts market has a depth of $2,110, making it more susceptible to price swings and suggesting traders are more actively positioning around immediate escort operations.
The blockade signals sustained US pressure, but without action on Kharg itself, these odds reflect anticipation rather than conviction. A YES share for Kharg Island by April 30 at 3¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 33x return. That payout requires belief in swift military escalation before month’s end.
Watch for CENTCOM announcements and any movement from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Changes in US or Iranian military posture could shift these markets fast.
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Kharg Island No Longer Under Iranian Control March 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 3.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 10.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 12 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
