The U.S. has blocked Iraq’s dollar shipments to pressure Iran-backed militias, according to the Wall Street Journal. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire by April 30 market has dropped to 14.5% YES, down from 32% yesterday.
The U.S. strategy targets specific militias, including Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba, by cutting their funding pipeline through Iraq’s dollar system. This financial blockade is an escalation of “maximum pressure” tactics during the ongoing 2026 Iran War, and it increases the possibility of U.S. forces entering Iran before 2027.
The ceasefire market saw a 5-point jump at 6:59 PM yesterday but has since settled lower to 14.5%. The dollar squeeze on Iraq has shifted trader sentiment toward continued military action over diplomatic resolution.
The market for U.S. forces entering Iran has no significant volume yet. But the financial blockade could precede troop movements if other pressures on Iran intensify.
For a contrarian position, buying YES at 15¢ pays $1 if a ceasefire is announced by April 30, a 6.67x return.
Watch for intermediary activity from Oman or Qatar, and any statements from Trump, Rubio, or CENTCOM. These are the most likely catalysts for a move in either direction.
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