US blockade of Iranian ports persists despite Trump’s claim of lift

By Estefano Gomez · Published May 30, 2026 · 2 min read · Source: Crypto Briefing

US blockade of Iranian ports persists despite Trump’s claim of lift

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normal by July 31

Add us on Google by Estefano Gomez May. 30, 2026

## Market Snapshot

The “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31” market is currently priced at 56.5% YES, down from 58% a day ago. The market for traffic normalizing by the end of May is at 0.4% YES, reflecting the continued blockade’s impact.

## Key Takeaways

– The continuation of the US blockade appears to suggest a decrease in the likelihood of normal traffic returning by May 31. – Markets suggest that the blockade’s persistence may indicate ongoing military tensions, affecting the July 31 normalization scenario. – The probability of 20 ships transiting the Strait by May 31 appears reduced, consistent with active blockade measures.

## Article Body

The US naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in effect, contradicting a recent statement by former President Donald Trump that it had been lifted. The blockade, enforced by U.S. Central Command, restricts maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports while allowing passage through the Strait of Hormuz to non-Iranian destinations. Despite reports of a potential lift, CENTCOM’s standing orders have kept the blockade intact, underscoring the sustained military tensions between the U.S. and Iran. This continued enforcement highlights the military, rather than purely diplomatic, nature of the current U.S.-Iran confrontation.

## Market Interpretation

The persistence of the blockade is supportive of a NO outcome for the “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by the end of May” market, indicating high impact on the likelihood of normalization. The odds for traffic normalization by July 31 also appear negatively influenced, suggesting moderate impact as the situation remains unresolved. The active enforcement of the blockade is consistent with scenarios where maritime disruptions persist.

## What to Watch

Key developments to monitor include any formal announcements from CENTCOM regarding the status of the blockade and potential diplomatic engagements between the U.S. and Iran. Attention should be paid to statements from Iranian officials and international maritime organizations, as these could impact the situation at the Strait of Hormuz. The possibility of renewed negotiations or changes in military posture could significantly influence market expectations.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

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