Timelapse footage from April 18 to 20 shows a sharp drop in maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market now prices normalization by April 30 at roughly 25¢ YES, with odds expected to decrease by 25% following the disruption.
Daily crossings fell from 36 on April 19 to just 8 on April 20 after the US-imposed naval blockade and seizure of an Iranian cargo ship. The US escorts through Hormuz market sits at 11% YES, down from 24% a week ago. Trading volume over the past 24 hours is $1,197, with $1,246 needed to move the price by 5 points. The largest recent shift was a 1-point spike.
The blockade has removed around 400 million barrels from the global market, causing a 50% surge in oil prices. Traders are now questioning whether the peace talks scheduled in Islamabad can produce results. The drop from 36 to 8 daily crossings in a single day shows how fragile the current ceasefire is, and further escalation would compound the supply disruption.
A YES share at approximately 25¢ offers a 4x return if traffic normalizes by April 30. That bet requires a diplomatic breakthrough within the next 10 days.
Monitor developments from US and Iranian negotiators in Islamabad. Changes in naval activity or ceasefire terms could move these markets quickly.
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