The U.S. Army is considering taking control of a section of the Strait of Hormuz, Axios reports, while the Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by April 30 sits at 0% YES.
The likelihood of traffic returning to normal levels by April 30 remains at 0% YES, meaning traders see no chance of a quick resolution. Heightened military involvement decreases the probability of normal traffic flow in the near term. The U.S. declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026 contract is at 7.5% YES, down slightly from 8% 24 hours ago.
Potential U.S. control of the Strait increases the likelihood of WTI Crude Oil hitting $150 in May. Military escalation could cause further supply disruptions and push oil prices higher, and related Polymarket contracts reflect trader expectations of continued volatility.
For traders, this is about sustained tension rather than near-term resolution. The term structure shows no expected return to normality in the Strait. A YES share on war declaration by December 31 is priced at 7.5¢, offering a 13.3x return if resolved. The low price reflects speculative interest despite the market’s assessment that formal war declaration remains unlikely.
Watch for CENTCOM military statements and any congressional moves on military authorizations. Either could materially shift probabilities in these markets.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 7.5% | — | — | View market → |
| April 30, 2026 | 0.1% | — | — | View market → |
