The New York Times reports a dual blockade in the Strait of Hormuz involving the US and Iran. The odds of the UK sending warships by April 30 sit at 2% YES, unchanged. The odds of Trump lifting the blockade by May 31 have dropped to 64%, down from 72% yesterday.
Market reaction
The UK warships market has not moved, sitting at 2% YES for several days. With only 6 days until resolution, traders show no conviction that a sudden naval deployment will happen. Face value trades at $11,264/day, but actual USDC traded is only $233, a sign of very low liquidity.
The Trump blockade-lifting market is far more active. It dropped from 72% to 64% YES in the last 24 hours. This market trades $152,453/day in face value, with $95,253 in actual USDC, showing strong trader engagement. The largest price move was a 5-point spike yesterday, driven by geopolitical developments around the ongoing blockade.
Why it matters
The dual blockade complicates resolution on both markets. Iran’s aggressive tactics and the US blockade together create sustained instability in the strait, which handles roughly a fifth of global oil transit. For the UK to send warships, a major diplomatic shift or an escalatory incident would need to happen in the next six days. The probability of Trump lifting the blockade depends on diplomatic breakthroughs that look unlikely given the current escalation.
What to watch
Watch for statements from the UK Ministry of Defence on naval movements and any public comments from Trump or CENTCOM. Either could shift these markets quickly.
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Which Countries Will Send Warships Through The Strait Of Hormuz April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 63.5% | — | — | Trade → |